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Why is it..............?
Olly - 5-3-2003 at 16:11

Is it just me or do the little weather geeks that put the forecasts online i.e. www.weatheronline.co.uk continually seek to raise my hopes by putting a decent forecast for the weekend on their sites mid week, only for the wind to result in a mere puff on saturday and sunday, barely enough to rustle a few leaves.

Most days I excitedly check the wind for the next few days, hoping for a decent bit of wind to get out sailing.

This is what usually happens:

Tues morning check the wind for the weekend, it says force 5 (my minimum for inland sailing as they always say it is stronger than it actually is)

Wednesday afternoon, check the weather, down to a force 4.

If I wait until the weekend, I can pretty much say there will not be enough wind to sail with.

It doesnt just happen with the odd weekend, it seems to happen every week. Is does anyone else find this, or is it just me?

justal - 5-3-2003 at 21:35

You're not the only one Olly.... Don't worry!

However, although this probably means nothing considering your post, I've just checked the forecasts for the weekend here at Borth AND...

Windguru is forecasting 21 knots SW on Sat morning, easing in the afternoon, then 20-23 knots SSW on Sunday.... Sounds good, but no doubt it will be downgraded over the next few days and will be about Force 2 by the weekend.

Weather online is saying Force 5-6 W-SW on Saturday and S-SSW Force 6 on Sunday.

Anyone going to be around....It may well happen as well because my parents are coming up for the weekend so I won't be able to spend all day at the beach.
Especially as I have to pack the house ready to move!

Al.

MartinF - 5-3-2003 at 22:19

I find onlineweather about as much use as a water-driven car: it just doesn't work. They always seem to overestimate actual conditions by at least 2 forces of wind strength, so if they're only forcasting F2 or less, it'll suck rather than blow

For Met Office generated isobaric charts, check out http://meteonet.nl/aktueel/brackall.htm
Note that this isn't the pathetic chart data the Met Office makes available on their own website, it's the chart data they provide to other met offices, the media, etc. Good of this dutch company to put it in the public domain.

WindGuru (http://www.windguru.cz/int/index.php) seems to produce fairly reliable weather forecasts. Plus you can customise it & (used to be able to) add the coordinates of your favourite spots & they'd provide forecasts for there.
The best site I've found for telleing you what the wind's *actually* doing is:
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

If you find any more good and/or detailed sites, please let me know!

Cheers,
Martin

justal - 5-3-2003 at 22:49

Martin, those are pretty much the forecasts I use as well...although I get my charts from a different location but they are the same charts...There are links to the individual charts on the links page of this site.

I also use the met office inshore forecasts and deduct at least one force from them.

I quite often use WeatherOnline as opposed to OnlineWeather and often find that they actually underestimate the wind strength. And windguru is good and as far as I know still allows you to enter any grid ref/coordinates for a location and they give you a forecast for that location. You can also adjust the forecasts for local effects... i.e. For Ynyslas I add on 30% if the wind is NE, but deduct 15% for SE's at Borth. Once you've entered the percentages once it automatically adjust the forecasts for you which is a good little feature... I'm working on getting these forecasts built into this site and have permission from the guy who runs Windguru to use them which is pretty good of him.

The other links on the links page are a little out of date now and some of the sites have disappeared or gone drastically downhill. Magic Seaweed is a good weather/surf forecast portal, but still the best is the tree outside my window!!

Al.

justal - 6-3-2003 at 07:12

The forecasts are actually still getting better for the weekend... I guess it could all still change though.

Heres the WindGuru forecast

It gets updated all the time but at the time of writing they were forecasting 21 -25 knots SW all through Saturday and Sunday.

I hope there are a few people planning to come to Borth??

Al.

badexcuseforasailor - 6-3-2003 at 11:12

The best forcast I know is the Trees and the bottem of the road where I live. I think most of these weather websites just put up a nice force 5 at the begining of the week just to wet our apitites (al can we have spell checker on here). By the looks of the forcast at the moment I may beable to leave the 8.5 m sail in the bag this weekend - "maybe"

I hope to make it to borth once the weather warms up enough to camp overnight is a bit of a long way to come for the day, about 240 miles

Olly - 6-3-2003 at 16:53

I've got some of those tree things at the bottom of my garden too.

There is nothing better than waking up and seeing them swaying in the wind. However it is only good if you have time in the day to sail. Other than that, I have to use weather forecasts to plan when I can sail.

I have checked the above sites, pretty cool, if anybody has got any other good ones (or finds one) then share the wealth as I am fed up with getting my hopes up for a sail each weekend.

Cant make it over this weekend Al. I have loads of uni stuff to be doing. Probably wont be able to sail in borth until after 28th march

Thinking of going away for a couple of days over easter, anyone know any places worth checking out????

Olly

paul - 6-3-2003 at 17:02

quote:
Thinking of going away for a couple of days over easter, anyone know any places worth checking out????


I really hate to say it but why not cornwall if there is a decent wind forecast there is the triple crown wave event at Gwithian and Formula racing at Marazion.

Olly - 6-3-2003 at 18:24

hey paul,

have you got the dates for those events?

cheers

Olly

justal - 6-3-2003 at 19:33

Olly...The dates are already in the Calendars on this site.... As are the rest of the UKWA events...and loads of other stuff.

18th-21st April....

Check out the UKWA website fpr more info... Although I don't think theres that much info on there at the moment.

Shame you can't make it this weekend.

Al.

justal - 6-3-2003 at 19:47

quote:
Originally posted by badexcuseforasailor
I hope to make it to borth once the weather warms up enough to camp overnight is a bit of a long way to come for the day, about 240 miles


That would certainly be a long drive just to get to Borth...especially when you consider tha the last 100 miles are through deepest darkest Wales!!

I shall be organising some trips again this year as soon as the clocks go forward... I have to get a few things sorted here first too as we are about to move out of our house and into a caravan, but once thats sorted hopefully I'll arrange a few weekends away. Mainly in Wales as its fairly easy for many of the members to get to (those in the Midlands, Wales and Bristol area anyway) and because there are a few places that have a wide range of conditions for windsurfing, surfing, kiting etc. all within a short distance of each other.

Probable locations are:


I'd like to get to cornwall at some point too and maybe the South Coast for a demo day as well... but its quite a drive from here and its difficult to drive AWAY from the coast in the first place. Morocco would be good too!!!

Al.

justal - 7-3-2003 at 08:02

Olly looks like this weekend is an even worse way around for you.... Instead of the forecast getting gradually worse for windsurfing, its been getting steadily better.... But you're stuck in Wolverhampton and can't go sailing.

Its already blowin a hoolie here. Don't think I can manage a session today either as I have to work this morning then take down a fence and move our new 'House' this afternoon.

Al.

Olly - 7-3-2003 at 08:29

It sods law, I have a rant about how crappy the weather forecasts are and they go and prove me wrong (my plan to get some wind worked!!!!)

I will hopefully be able to get out to my home lake, I will hopefully get in some much needed gybing practice, the only problem now is to try and fit in some uni work. I can feel some very, very late nights coming on to get work finished.

Hope everyone who gets out sailing this weekend has a cracking time and stays safe.

Olly

paul - 7-3-2003 at 09:05

looking good here too

Wind Guru

SeanBo - 7-3-2003 at 09:09

Well the trees are swaying, the clouds are scuttling and all the forecasts seem to agree that we will get wind on Saturday and probably Sunday, its just a shame I can't get out today.

Hope the rest of you get a good sail

badexcuseforasailor - 7-3-2003 at 10:25

Looking good here today too, just a shame I have to go to work this afternoon. doing shift work is good when on earlies can be on the water by 3.30pm. Lates is a nightmare though get to watch the wind in the morning then go to work would throw a sicky but the boss knows that I sail (teaches me not to read boards mag in work) The forcast is still looking good for tomorow so hopefuly we will all get out and get our stoked ratings up.

keep ranting about no wind and wrong forcast olly, looks like its done the trick

IainW - 7-3-2003 at 13:28

I am also stuck at work looking at it getting windier by the minute, but atleast it is not SW yet, which is what I need for Bala.

But over the weekend it is forcecast SW, so I guess I will be heading there - anyone else going to Bala?

Otherwise have fun out there!!!!

justal - 7-3-2003 at 20:28

Well, at least you weren't at the beach watching the wind and waves but unable to get in the water!! I was at Borth moving a static caravan onto (what will soon be) our plot. Everything was going fine (apart from the occasional torrential downpour) but then we got it stuck!!! Half an hour later and lots of scrabbling about in the mud and we also succeeded in getting the land rover stuck as well!!!

And then it got dark so we didn't make a great deal of progress. We did manage to free the Land Rover but the caravan is well and truly stuck at a weird angle in the middle of the plot!!.... Home Sweet Home

So, not only did I not get to go windsurfing in the decent winds we had today, but it looks as though I shall be searching for a tractor tomorrow and maybe missing out on another good days sailing. I should be able to get in for a bit hopefully though.

IainW...Why not keep heading West once you get to Bala and sail on the sea!!!... If you see Radical Rob tell him we're missing him at Borth and its about time he got back out on the sea now that he has a smaller board!

Just FYI its been SW and 20-25 knots all day here and the swell is picking up so it could be a mad weekend if the forecasts hold.

Al.

Olly - 14-3-2003 at 08:28

They've done it again.

These weathermen ("persons" political crapness and all that) are teasing me with a meesley f 3-4 this saturday.

Looks like I will have to stay home and actually do some uni work this weekend.

IainW - 14-3-2003 at 13:16

Al

Maybe one day the car will find its way to Borth, but it certainty won't be this weekend as the forecast is pretty poor. Still it is the first time I have ever seen the Bala BBC five day forecast have continuous Sun

Scorcheo Scorcheo Scorcheo

Another reason is that my brother who transports all the gear is currently in quarantine with Chicken pox, caught from one of his daughters, and guess who hasn't had Chicken pox and who sat next to him in the car for 3 hours last Saturday- the day before his spots appeared. Incubation period is 10-14 days so one week to go to see if I am in the clear

Sorry to hear about you getting stuck - hope that it is all sorted now.
:(

justal - 14-3-2003 at 20:00

Olly... They were forecating 3-4 today and yesterday, but it was 5m amd 4.5m weather respetively in the estuary... So who knows what the weekend will bring. Tide times aren't great for an estaury session though.

IainW... Cool... I'm sure its about time you got out on the sea, but keep your disgusting diseases East of Bala for now!

The caravan is still stuck, but the 'Scorcheo' weather is drying the ground out nicely so we're off to the plot armed with jacks, sheets of corrugated iron and a land-rover sometime this weekend!! We;ve got to get it moved as we have to be living in it by the end of the month!

Al.

justal - 15-3-2003 at 21:14

quote:
Originally posted by Olly
They've done it again.

These weathermen ("persons" political crapness and all that) are teasing me with a meesley f 3-4 this saturday.

Looks like I will have to stay home and actually do some uni work this weekend.


Olly... You shouldn't listen to those weatherpersons... You should have come to Borth. Yet again the winds kicked in and we had a good sail. It would have been perfect for you Olly. Not as mad as last time you were here, but still plenty of wind and only a small bit of chop.

Read it and weep!

al.

justal - 16-3-2003 at 22:18

quote:
Originally posted by IainW
Sorry to hear about you getting stuck - hope that it is all sorted now.


Hurray... The caravan is out of the mud and in position on the plot.

Half the house is packed into boxes as well, and it won't be long until we're moving into the caravan! Then I'll be able to see exactly what the wind and surf is doing without having to drive to the beach. Cool!

Al.