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Pikey massif outing in the estuary then this weekend?
mNeil - 12-7-2006 at 17:07

well i will be up friday evening and be parked up in the estuary..............not staying overnight though eh wardens!


leonardo - 12-7-2006 at 17:45

At a house party fri night, working saturday morning then should be in the estaury for about 6pm to catch an evening sail and then kgb action on sunday!

Will - I got a good feeling about the Gorge-Effect this weekend! Also gonna be 26 Cels and no clouds all weekend!!!


col123 - 12-7-2006 at 20:16

thinking of coming up saturday evening as well be good to get the cobwebs of norn, as well as me,

monster contras just incase.. but fingers crossed for the gorge effect and an intresting new toy in tow!!!!

if it doesn't drop anymore i'll be there, but on nights sunday so be left by 2...dooohhhhhhh


shem - 12-7-2006 at 20:31

Is this the tehpro model then COL?!


mNeil - 12-7-2006 at 20:54

is it on of those things that smoke comes out of the back?


justal - 12-7-2006 at 21:08

Weather certainly looks good... lots of sunshine (on Sat) and decent temperatures... Its a little late in the year for Ivor to put in a proper appearance, but he might do first thing in the morning probably not as strong as it can be but maybe enough.

Al.


col123 - 13-7-2006 at 07:24

If the wind is easterly and the land hot later on what happens to the sea breeze, does it just stop or what


justal - 13-7-2006 at 07:43

There's never a yes or no answer, but if the land is hot enough for an afternoon sea-breeze but the general windflow is easterly then yes, the easterly wind may well cancel out the sea-breeze effect.

Which one wins and how strong the wind will be (or from what direction it will be) obviously depends on the relative strengths of the two opposing winds.

To put my neck on the line I reckon Ivor will be blowing down the estuary in the morning this weekend, probably not particularly strongly but stronger than the general forecast of 5-6 knots, maybe 15-20 knots if we are lucky. He'll probably peak around 8-9am. How strong he will be depends on the amount of cloud cover and how much the temps fall overnight.
Once the land begins to warm up he'll soon ease off and the forecasted 6 knots or so E will be in effect.
By midday the sea-breeze effect will start to oppose the E wind and in the afternoon a gentle sea-breeze will probably fill in, although I doubt it will come to much.

I could of course be talking complete and utter b****cks, and it is only Thursday, so by the time the weekend arrives the curently forecast light E winds clear skies and warm temps for the weekend may have changed anyway!... We'll just have to see what the day brings.

Al.


mNeil - 13-7-2006 at 09:04

the sea breeze has overcome the easterly winds these past few weekends asnd become strong enough for a good session on the front; infact it has been enough for the 11 sonics to come out. fingers crossed Col


col123 - 13-7-2006 at 10:54

fingers crossed indeed master blue...bbc are now showing 12mph easterly


leonardo - 13-7-2006 at 11:36

u're right Col, 12 mph E could mean a solid 20knots..yeeehaaaa




dunk - 13-7-2006 at 16:24

Not for me dudes, I'm teaching powerboat


justal - 13-7-2006 at 16:35

You should have been here today... Not a cloud in the sky and a totally steady 23 knots all afternoon.... I was still too ill to get out there though

It isn't looking great for the weekend at the mo.

Al.


willf - 13-7-2006 at 16:55

sorry guys it's my fault, i have a weekend off, am desperate for a sale have a new board etc.... i'm the jinx. i feel crap about it. i'm sorry.


col123 - 13-7-2006 at 18:39

yea lets blame will


shem - 13-7-2006 at 20:36

Yip, same wind here in dyfi Al, gorgous!!!


Spooker - 13-7-2006 at 21:10

Will...... YOU BA****D!!!

how could you be so selfish?

Why can't you work a bit longer - save a few more cats - and let the rest of us have some fun???


chris - 13-7-2006 at 21:44

found out tonight that to find out if a sea breeze it gonna happen you should look at he inland paragliding sites. nice thermals inland mean wind on the coast and if the wind before the sea breeze is eastery it will increase our nw sea breeze because it will blow air over it and back out to sea rather that opose it. must find out some more info so i can plan these winds better and plan work around them next year. soon the water will be too warm and no more thermal wind.


justal - 14-7-2006 at 05:48

Just so that you know, Ivor, the katabatic wind has been working this morning... currently E at 16-20 knots.

Al.


leonardo - 14-7-2006 at 06:17

20 knts this morning!!! Lets hope it does the same for sat + sun


justal - 14-7-2006 at 06:25

And thats here with 22 knot gusts.... in the estuary it may be a little more.

Al.


justal - 14-7-2006 at 09:59

It looks as though Ivor is no running out of steam a little now today, but he did peak at 24 knots here at my house this morning, which probablty relates to close to 30 knots in the estuary... Maybe he is going to be on form this weekend??

Al.


Impi - 14-7-2006 at 11:27

Even though the tides are all wrong I may do a mad early morning dash to catch Ivor tomorrow. If it is much like today it may be worth it.


justal - 14-7-2006 at 15:38

quote:
Originally posted by chris
if the wind before the sea breeze is eastery it will increase our nw sea breeze because it will blow air over it and back out to sea rather that opose it.


That didn't work today... The Easterly wind managed to oppose the sea breeze all day long, despite the fact that the temps were higher than yesterday when we had one of the best sea breezes we'll get here.!

I can see the theory behind it, but that doesn't mean it works!

Al.


AndyW - 14-7-2006 at 20:00

I was out today and although Ivor had some effect early on, by the time high tide came it was dropping off. Less chance to get a good session tomoz with the later high tide.

I ended up using my 9.0m to get well powered up in the channel after high tide. You might need to be early to catch Ivor, hopefully there'll be some water!

Andy


justal - 15-7-2006 at 05:29

Yep... Just been down to the estuary, plenty of wind... 20 knots + but no water!

Al.


justal - 15-7-2006 at 16:29

quote:
Originally posted by justal
To put my neck on the line I reckon Ivor will be blowing down the estuary in the morning this weekend, probably not particularly strongly but stronger than the general forecast of 5-6 knots, maybe 15-20 knots if we are lucky. He'll probably peak around 8-9am. How strong he will be depends on the amount of cloud cover and how much the temps fall overnight.
Once the land begins to warm up he'll soon ease off and the forecasted 6 knots or so E will be in effect.
By midday the sea-breeze effect will start to oppose the E wind and in the afternoon a gentle sea-breeze will probably fill in, although I doubt it will come to much.


Well, I put my neck on the line with that forecast... It wasn't perfect but it wasn't far off either. Ivor was indeed in effect in the morning but he was coming down the valley with a little more puff than expected as the cloud cover conditions were just perfect for him... clear skies over the sea and increasing clouds over the hills as the sun rose.
he did indeed peak between 8am and 9am as predicted (8.34am to be precise) at about 25 knots.

The fact that he was a little stronger than expected meant that he also lasted a little longer, by midday he was blowing at around 12-15 knots and then dropped off pretty quickly after that. The gentle Easterly (forecast by the met office) then persisted until about 3pm when a sea breeze finally filled in and managed to oopse the easterlies. As predicted didn't come to much, althoug it did manage a few gusts that reached 16 knots at one point.

Lets hope Ivor does the same tomorrow.

Al.